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Textile foreign trade is threatened again Asian currency next trend?
[2024/5/17]  Read total of [35] times

Recently, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen has fluctuated and fallen sharply, which has put the Japanese economy under obvious pressure. In addition to the Japanese yen, the exchange rate of many Asian national currencies against the US dollar has also fallen to varying degrees this year. The Japanese Economic News recently reported that many Asian countries remain vigilant against the depreciation of their currencies caused by the appreciation of the US dollar and have launched a currency defense war. According to the Nikkei report, this year, as of May 1, the Japanese yen, Thai baht, South Korean won, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit and other Asian national currencies against the US dollar exchange rates have fallen to varying degrees.


Compared with the beginning of the year, the Japanese yen fell about 9 percent against the dollar, the Korean won fell more than 6 percent, and the Indonesian rupiah fell more than 5 percent.


What's next for Asian currencies? How is the renminbi coping with the turmoil? What is the impact on textile foreign trade?


Whether it is Japan, South Korea or Southeast Asia, it is an important textile and apparel export place in China, and the exchange rate fluctuation of the local currency is bound to affect China's textile foreign trade export.


From the micro point of view, on the one hand, the sharp depreciation of the currency exchange rate will increase the import cost of China's textile and garment in overseas markets; On the other hand, the continued depreciation of the exchange rate will further squeeze the foreign exchange reserves of the central banks of Asian countries, causing foreign exchange tensions, so that some enterprises can not apply for enough foreign exchange imports even if there is demand. From a macro point of view, every time the United States enters a cycle of high interest rates and strong exchange rates, overseas countries will face enormous pressure. When U.S. interest rates are higher, money flows from emerging markets back into the dollar zone, pushing up the dollar's exchange rate, pushing up the price of dollar assets, and attracting more money out of emerging markets. Emerging market countries have used their reserves to maintain exchange rate stability, but as those reserves have rapidly dwindled, fundamentals have deteriorated and more foreign (and domestic) capital has fled. Many emerging countries have accumulated a large amount of US dollar debt, and once foreign capital is withdrawn, the US dollar liquidity will soon dry up, and it will be prone to a debt crisis, which may cause a chain reaction.


But overall, after the lessons of several financial crises, countries have further enhanced the degree of control over exchange rates, and the probability of systemic risk has been significantly reduced.


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